Altseason Gauge — Evidence-Based Cycle Tracker

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1. Altcoin Strength (BTC Dominance) Critical
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Alt-friendly zone: <50% sustained | Historical alt phases often 38-50%
2. ETH/BTC Ratio Critical
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Alt momentum threshold: 0.045+ | Prior peaks: 0.07-0.08
3. Altseason Index (30d) Critical
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Market Breadth: Loading...
Top 5 Performance Leaders:
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    Confirmation: 75%+ with broad breadth >60%
    4. Stablecoins vs Alt Volume Important
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    Altcoin Vol (24h): Loading...
    Rotation score: Calculating...% | Higher = more capital deployment
    5. Market Sentiment Important
    Fear & Greed: Loading...
    Optimal range: 60-75 | Extremes increase reversal risk
    6. Altcoin Market Cap (TOTAL3) Important
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    Scale: $500B-$2T | Rising trend reinforces alt momentum
    7. DeFi TVL Trending
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    Scale: $100B-$1T | Expanding TVL signals demand
    8. Russell 2000 Breakout Risk Gauge
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    Risk-on proxy: trend + momentum signals
    9. Signal Composite Score Model
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    Composite probability from weighted signals and data coverage
    Altseason Status (Multi-Factor Confidence Score)
    Analyzing market conditions...
    Analyzing market conditions...
    Phase: Initializing...
    Altseason Index History (Top 100 vs BTC, 30d)
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    Bitcoin Dominance Trend Analysis
    30-Point Change
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    Trend Slope
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    Regime
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    Awaiting dominance history...
    Top Performing Altcoins (30d Momentum)
    Top 30d gainers from the top 100 by market cap (CoinGecko, excluding BTC/ETH/stables).
    Risk & Opportunity Analysis
    Risk Score
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    Opportunity Score
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    Volatility Index
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    Momentum Strength
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    Strategy Recommendation:
    Analyzing market conditions...
    Historical Context & Comparisons
    vs Last Altseason
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    Cycle Position
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    Market Maturity
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    Data Coverage
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    Historical Insights:
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    Signal-Based Outlook
    Altseason Projection:
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    Market Outlook:
    Synthesizing market signals...
    Signal-weighted model using public market data. Not financial advice.
    Capital Flow Analysis
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    Methodology & Data Sources
    1. BTC Dominance (Altcoin Strength)
    Source: CoinGecko global market cap. We invert BTC dominance; sustained drops below ~50% historically aligned with alt-led phases (2017, 2021).
    2. ETH/BTC Ratio
    Source: CoinGecko spot prices. Rising ETH/BTC signals rotation into large-cap alts; >0.045 has historically marked strong alt momentum.
    3. Altseason Index (30d)
    Computed from the top 100 by market cap (ex BTC/ETH/stables). Index = % of alts outperforming BTC over 30d (BlockchainCenter-style breadth method).
    4. Stablecoin Supply vs Alt Volume
    Stablecoin market cap from DeFiLlama; altcoin volume from proxy aggregation. Rising alt volume relative to stable float implies capital deployment.
    5. Market Sentiment
    Fear & Greed Index from Alternative.me. Sustainable alt rallies usually occur in the 60-75 range; extremes signal reversal risk.
    6. Altcoin Market Cap (TOTAL3)
    TOTAL3 proxy (total crypto cap minus BTC/ETH). Expansion confirms broad alt participation, especially when rising alongside breadth.
    7. DeFi TVL
    DefiLlama TVL. Growth indicates on-chain demand and supports higher alt valuations.
    8. Russell 2000 Risk Gauge
    Yahoo Finance small-cap trend proxy. Breakouts often coincide with higher risk appetite in crypto markets.
    9. Signal Composite Score
    Weighted blend of the above signals with data-quality adjustments. Higher scores require breadth + rotation + liquidity.
    Altseason Trigger Signals
    0/8 Signals Active
    System Health & Data Quality
    Initializing systems...